Sri Lanka were whitewashed by South Africa in the two-match Test series, which dented their chances of qualifying for the final of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC).
Sri Lanka had arrived in South Africa with an aim to secure a place in the WTC final for the 2023-25 cycle, however, their hopes suffered a massive blow with a crushing defeat in the opening Test in Durban.
While the team displayed a more resilient performance in the second Test in Gqeberha, they ultimately fell short, succumbing to the hosts by a substantial margin of 109 runs.
This victory propelled South Africa to the top of the WTC points table, positioning them as strong contenders for the final.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka remained in fourth place, but their dreams of reaching the final were not entirely dashed. They still had two matches left in the current cycle, with Australia set to visit Sri Lanka for a two-match series next year.
The Sri Lankan cricket team need to achieve a clean sweep victory over Australia to boost their percentage points (PCT) to 53.85.
A victory by just 1-0 would leave Sri Lanka with a PCT of only 48.72, which would not suffice. Additionally, they need to keep an eye on the outcomes of other teams’ matches.
South Africa have two Tests remaining in the current cycle on their home soil against Pakistan. If they draw even one of those matches, they would secure a PCT of 55.56.
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However, if Pakistan manage to stun South Africa with a 2-0 victory, then the latter would finish with a PCT of 52.78.
Sri Lanka’s chances of qualification would increase significantly in case of South Africa’s defeat, regardless of the results from the ongoing series between India and Australia.
For instance, should Australia incur a 2-3 loss, their PCT would dwindle to 50.00, assuming Sri Lanka achieves a 0-2 victory over them. Similarly, if India were to face a similar 2-3 defeat, they would drop to a PCT of 53.51.
However, in the case of Pakistan’s loss against South Africa, the situation becomes more complex.
The only feasible path remaining for Sri Lanka to qualify under those circumstances would require the India-Australia series to conclude in a 1-1 draw. In this scenario, India would finalize their campaign at 53.51, while Australia would settle at a PCT of 50.00.
After going through all the scenarios, it’s clear that Sri Lanka would want Pakistan to achieve a clean sweep over South Africa.
If this happens and Sri Lanka can triumph 2-0 against Australia, their qualification would be nearly assured. Otherwise, Sri Lanka would still need to secure a 2-0 win against Australia while simultaneously hoping for three consecutive draws in the Australia series.
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